West Africa’s economic prospects is bright—Ecobank Report
|Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, is at last moving out of recession, Ghana’s growth continues to be strong|
The economic forecast for Anglophone West Africa is looking brighter according to analysis by Ecobank’s (www.Ecobank.com) research team in the newly published Anglophone West Africa section of its flagship financial website, AfricaFICC (https://goo.gl/CduKLQ).
Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, is at last moving out of recession, Ghana’s growth continues to be strong, and the region’s smaller countries are picking up as they shake off the lingering effects of the Ebola outbreak in 2013-16.
Anglophone West Africa, which stretches from Gambia in the West to Nigeria in the East, is the second regional section of the website to go live. It covers six countries – Ghana (https://goo.gl/txuyNx), Guinea (https://goo.gl/uLzR4Q), Liberia (https://goo.gl/33n7h1), Nigeria (https://goo.gl/uWqwtg), Sierra Leone (https://goo.gl/nAzSa7) and The Gambia (https://goo.gl/38tdBP) – and encompasses the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), which draws together the mostly English-speaking countries of West Africa.
Data for the region shows that Nigeria accounts for an estimated 90% of regional GDP and exports (mostly crude oil). The outlook for both Nigeria and Ghana, the second key member of the block, is good in 2018: Nigeria is improving oil production, Ghana is getting a boost from an expansionary 2018 government budget and rising energy production; Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone are on the up as their recovery from the effects of Ebola gathers pace; and the positive political outlook in The Gambia is driving economic prospects.
Key factors in the region are:
· Outside oil and gas, Anglophone West Africa is a major producer of soft commodities – cocoa, cashew nuts, natural rubber and wood – both for regional consumption and for export to world markets.
· The region is an important exporter of hard minerals, including gold, diamonds, and manganese, iron and aluminium ores, with Ghana the leading gold producer.
· The region is also a financial hub, having an estimated 39% of Middle Africa’s banking assets in 2015 (mostly in Nigeria). Nigeria and Ghana host two of the largest stock exchanges in Africa, in Lagos and Accra, respectively.
· Nigeria has developed the world’s largest sugar refining complex in Lagos, and has successfully phased out imports of packaged and refined sugar.
Dan Sackey, Regional Executive for Anglophone West Africa & Managing Director of Ecobank Ghana, commented: “West Africa is coming out of a difficult period where it has faced many challenges – recession, Ebola, falling oil and other commodity prices – but we are now back on a growth trajectory. The recovery in commodity prices, notably oil and cocoa, has given a boost to economic growth, especially in Nigeria and Ghana, lifting the entire region. It is essential that West Africa uses this opportunity to press ahead with the diversification of the economy away from dependence on oil and minerals, with a focus on increasing output and processing of soft commodities, improving logistics and using the region’s financial and stock market leadership. Provided West Africa’s governments can maintain fiscal discipline, the growth outlook is very positive.”
“Ecobank understands regional and local business customs, regulations and country-specific risks better than any other bank in Africa because we operate on the ground in 33 markets,” said Dr Edward George (https://goo.gl/A2dHnj), Ecobank’s Head of Group Research. “Our new website offers reliable and comprehensive economic, currency, banking, commodity and trade data on markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, helping both us and our clients to make investment and other financial decisions as part of our seamless service,” he said.
Ecobank’s flagship Africa Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) on-line resource – https://Ecobank.com/AfricaFICC – provides key facts for businesses and investors on the economies of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and the key sectors of activity. The website gives a country-by country analysis, including the general economic outlook (https://goo.gl/mQVTyF), details of the FX, FI and banking sectors (https://goo.gl/tcJS2P), and overview of the energy (https://goo.gl/zQ8jra) and soft commodity (https://goo.gl/SnZHvG) sectors, as well as of key trade flows (https://goo.gl/z2Tf46).
Country profiles for Anglophone West Africa are now published and available online.
Country guides for Francophone West Africa are already live. Country guides for other regions of Sub-Saharan Africa – Central Africa, Eastern Africa and Southern Africa – will be posted online in the next few months. Look out for updates on our twitter feed @ecobankresearch.
The research team’s experts are available for interview to discuss the key issues and sectors in Anglophone Africa – please contact them directly:
Dr Edward George, Head of Group Research, @drteddgeorge, EGeorge@Ecobank.com
· Soft commodities
· Trade (external & intra-regional)
· Fintech & disruptive technology
Gaimin Nonyane, Head of economic research, @GFK_N, GNonyane@Ecobank.com
· GDP, inflation
· Fixed Income & Interest rates
George Bodo, Head of financial research, @GeorgeBodo, GBodo@Ecobank.com
· Banking sector
Jubril Kareem, Head of energy research, @jaki006, JKareem@Ecobank.com
· Oil & gas