IMF says Nigeria economy is still vulnerable
Nigeria economy is weak, vulnerable says IMF
Although Nigeria said it had exited a two-year recession that bedevil the economy from the wake of President Muhammdu Buhari administration, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said the country’s economy is still weak and vulnerable.
The IMF made this known at the conclusion of its four-day mission to Nigeria on Article 1V consultation with the country.
Article 1V Consultation is the assessment of IMF member countries macroeconomic (fiscal and monetary) conditions with a view to identifying growth challenges, as well as potentials so as to address them and tap into the opportunities.
The Guardian noted that key findings in Nigeria during the mission identified huge opportunities in the country’s power sector and business environment under the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP).
The IMF staff team was led by Amine Mati, the Resident Representative and Mission Chief for Nigeria during the two weeks 2018 Article IV consultation.
“Overall growth is slowly picking up but recovery remains challenging. Economic activity expanded by 1.4 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2017—the second consecutive quarter of positive growth after five quarters of recession—driven by recovering oil production and agriculture.
“However, growth in the non-oil-non-agricultural sector (representing about 65 percent of the economy) contracted in the first three quarters of 2017 relative to the same period last year.
“Difficulties in accessing financing and high inflation continued to weigh on companies’ performance and consumer demand. Headline inflation declined to 15.9 per cent by end-November, from 18½ per cent at end-2016, but remains sticky despite tight liquidity conditions.
“High fiscal deficits—driven by weak revenue mobilisation—generated large financing needs, which, when combined with tight monetary policy necessary to reduce inflationary pressures, increased pressure on bond yields and crowded out private sector credit.
“These factors contributed to raising the ratio of interest payments to federal government revenue to unsustainable levels. Reflecting the low growth environment and exposure to the oil and gas sector, the banking industry’s solvency ratios have declined from almost 15 to 10½ per cent between December 2016 and October 2017, and non-performing loans have increased from five per cent in June 2015 to 15 per cent as of October 2017, although with provisioning coverage of about 82 per cent,” the statement reads.