Category: Africa

Election Eve political analytics point that Kenyatta may win Thursday’s poll

As at this evening, all political indices available to us point the direction that Kenyatta may win Thursday election. This becomes increasingly clear after the Supreme Court could not stop the election today.

For the third time,  Odinga, 72, and Kenyatta, 56, are meeting each other in the field in a historical political rivalry that began with their fathers following Kenya independence from Britain.

Odinga has made great impact in the psyche of the proletariat, raising astonishing followership in Kenya. This spoke during the August election. Odinga had every chance of giving Kenyatta a hot chase Thursday’s poll and perhaps clinching the victory until he announced his pull-out from the race, a move largely viewed as a political mistake.

Odinga’s action was in a pure protest of the perceived control the incumbent President, Uhuru Kenyatta and his party have on the Kenya election body, IEBC. But how far can this protest carry him? Odinga may have decided to announce his pull-out from the election to increase national and international focus on his demand for restructuring of the electoral system. He may have hoped to stir political whirlwind that would force the incumbent to hands-off perceived manipulations of the electoral system. But the body language of Kenya government officials does not suggest that there would any reform of the electoral process before the election.

The incumbent power may have exploited the lacuna in the Supreme Court’s judgement. The Court did not order the restructuring of the Kenya electoral institution. It only ordered a rerun of the election by the same electoral umpire which the Court said manipulated the August election. This is the number one factor that is working in favour of Kenyatta.

Again, the timing for the election does not give room for reforms. If the opposition would extract a reform of the electoral system from the situation, a three-months period would not be auspicious to complete a reform process.

For Odinga, best political calculation would not have been to announce a drop-out from the race. The pull-out announcement would confuse Odinga’s supporters and strengthen Kenyatta’s camp. The best Odinga could have done would have been to continue appealing to the conscience of the Kenya electorate until the day of the election.

It could be recalled that Kenyatta’s winning margin—10 percentage points, or 1.4 million votes was relatively low. That was despite the rigging as pronounced by the Supreme Court. This goes to say that Odinga could have had better chances of winning the election at the rerun if he had not announced his pull- out.

Following the Supreme Court’s judgement on September 20^th when Justice Philomena Mwilu said the election was “neither transparent nor verifiable.” And Chief Justice David Maraga said result verifications forms were incomplete and unsigned. Odinga, demanded more substantial reform at the IEBC and called on its Chairman Ezra Chiloba and other leaders to resign.

But Odinga’s demands has not happened. Chiloba has refused to step down. The Kenya Jubilee party’s demand for amendments to election law, to de-emphasize the role of electronic ballots in vote tallies and require a recount when results are disputed, has not happened too.

Instead, the IEBC has affirmed that election will happen on October 26 and that eight candidates from the August 8 ballot, including Odinga, will be part of the rerun. Election officials say Odinga did not complete the requirements to withdraw from the race.

Kenya government is also taking decisive measures to stop further protests in the business districts of three cities, including the capital, Nairobi and officials preach that the ban will prevent violence.

The implication of the foregoing is that the government is not ready to accede to Odinga’s demands, no matter how germane the demands look.