The African Energy Chamber (AEC) (http://www.EnergyChamber.org) has announced that Timipre Sylva, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources of Nigeria, will lead investment-focused dialogue during the Invest in African Energy Reception set to take place in London on January 26. With the Nigerian energy market on the precipice of another transformation on the back of diversification and market-driven policy implementation, the participation of Minister Sylva is key for securing new capital for Nigeria’s rapidly growing market, while enabling new players and financiers to expand their footprint in one of Africa’s biggest oil producing countries.
Nigeria has emerged as one of the most attractive destinations for foreign investment owing largely to the signing into law of the Petroleum Industry Act in 2021. With the Act having overhauled the country’s regulation and governance, addressing key growth inhibitors by prioritizing transparency, procedural clarity and attractive fiscal terms for regional and international players, the Nigerian energy market is more enabling for business than ever, and the Minister will showcase opportunities in the sector during the Invest in African Energy Reception in London.
The Act itself has already unlocked tangible benefits, with the country positioning itself as the biggest oil producer in Africa in 2023, despite a year of production declines owing to challenges associated with oil theft and reduced exploration. With the state-owned company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation identifying and shutting down an illegal pipeline responsible for the loss of up to 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, production has rapidly increased to approximately 1.2 million bpd in December 2022, setting the country up for an exciting year in 2023. The country is more ambitious than ever when it comes to expanding the oil and gas market even further, with the government incentivizing E&P activity in a bid to boost production levels further. As such, opportunities for upstream players have opened up and Minister Sylva will be making a strong case for hydrocarbon exploration during the reception in London.
Opportunities in the oil industry, over 200 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven natural gas reserves – and opportunities to increase this figure to 600 tcf with advancements in exploration – have positioned the country as the destination of choice for financiers and project developers from across the natural gas landscape. At a time when global markets are urgently seeking alternative gas supplies in light of ongoing supply constraints, Nigerian gas has emerged as a top solution, and investors are encouraged to capitalize on the opportunities present across this rapidly growing market.
However, Nigeria’s oil and gas market opportunities transcend exports, with the country well-positioned to feed into regional supply chains. Having signed a deal with Equatorial Guinea that would see Nigerian gas being processed at the country’s Punta Europa facilities while making steady progress to complete the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline and breaking ground of new project developments, Nigeria is opening new opportunities for electrification and industrialization in Africa on the back of intra-African gas trade, made possible through initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Agreement and the progressing Central African Pipeline System.
“Through his participation at the Invest in African Energy Reception in London – taking place in partnership with the African Export-Import Bank and Rystad Energy – Minister Sylva has made clear his commitment to securing new capital for a suite of large-scale projects across the entire energy value chain in Nigeria. During the event, the Minister will be driving market-focused dialogue on why investing in Nigeria is so critical, both for the African economy and for the global energy market at large. The London event provides financiers and energy players with the unique opportunity to directly engage and connect with a leading government representative from the biggest oil producer in Africa, and the AEC is encouraging all of those interested in expanding their footprint in Africa to join us at this high-level event,” states NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the AEC.
Local reports say normalcy may be returning to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) after weeks of apprehension over the fate of the bank’s chief, Godwin Emefiele, findings by The Guardian, yesterday, suggested.
Emefiele has been facing threats over his recent policies on naira redesign and withdrawal which politicians see as unfavourable. Officials who engaged with The Guardian said the bank was not bothered about speculations and outright fabrications that have seized the attention of the public in the past weeks while the governor was away on his yearly vacation.
An official said Emefiele, just like every other staff, has been working since his return and “everything is calm”. The official, who operates from the headquarters, said there was nothing to suggest that the governor was uncommonly disturbed. Other sources at the bank and the Department of State Services (DSS) also downplayed the ordeal facing the CBN boss, describing the information in public space as speculations. While Emefiele was away for vacation, reports said the DSS were awaiting his return to the country to execute a planned arrest. But since his return on Monday, ahead of the year’s first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, next week, there has, somewhat, been suspense on the matter. There were reports on Monday of DSS officials taking over the premises of the CBN headquarters in Abuja for a possible arrest. This was followed by an online report claiming DSS operatives took top CBN and Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) officials to the Service’s headquarters, following their inability to arrest Emefiele for interrogation. But the secret police swiftly dismissed the reported invasion as false. “The attention of the DSS has been drawn to the false news making the round that its operatives invaded the CBN and arrested its governor. This is fake news and quite misleading,” a statement signed by the spokesman of the agency, Dr. Peter Afunanya, said. Also, a CBN official, who spoke to The Guardian on condition of anonymity, said no official of the bank was grilled, adding that all senior staff were at their duty posts. “It is unfortunate that the part-time job of some media houses is to manufacture fake news. The more unfortunate thing is that some mainstream media houses will also follow up on news items that do not have any facts. All our deputy governors are in their offices discharging their responsibilities,” the source said.
According to the official, the bank would rather concentrate on finding solutions to challenges facing the economy and discharging its official responsibilities than be distracted by speculations and outright fabrications. He told The Guardian that the bank would not waste its time responding to “news items that lack details and are unprofessionally delivered”. “Look, the CBN has a bigger fish to fry than respond to news items that lack ingredients of good journalism and ethics. The inflation figures came down a bit as shown in the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report that was released on Monday. That, for the CBN, is the focus and that should be the focus of the media and Nigerians,” the source said. The spokesperson of the secret police, Afunanya, did not respond to The Guardian inquiry on whether it still has plans to make arrests. However, an official, who pleaded anonymity, said much of the information regarding Emefiele’s ordeal is mere speculation. “I do not have any information. Nobody will speak to you on this matter,” the official noted. But whether DSS proceeds with the arrest or not, the damage has been done, an economist and member of the faculty of the Lagos Business School, Prof. Bongo Adi, told The Guardian in an interview yesterday. The expert, who has been extremely wary about the conduct of the CBN governor in recent months, said it would take some time before confidence returns to the market and the CBN. Adi spoke about the irrationality of the market and noted that speculation essentially drives the market. He wondered what else could put the economy on information overdrive than a report that the CBN governor would be arrested. For Adi, it does not matter whether the information is speculative or true. He explained: “When such information is in the public, people begin to create all manner of scenarios and imagine all possibilities, including corruption. When you have such a situation, it will put the rumour mill on overdrive, and it will certainly affect everything. There will be a run on the currency.
“The assumption is that the government is up in arms against itself. It creates confusion, which affects the financial market, exchange rate market, stock market and the entire economy. People begin to lose faith in the economy. It will take a long time before confidence returns to the economy and the CBN itself. This is because people have got away with the impression that the bank has badly run the economy. It does not matter whether it is true or not.” Another analyst, Jide Akintunde, said it is unfortunate that the CBN governor’s office could be ridiculed. If there were actual allegations, he wondered why the DSS had not gone ahead to make good the arrest, now that Emefiele is back in the country. He said the integrity issue, which borders on the sincerity of the DSS or the lack of it, is the ultimate determinant of the trust level in the market. This is the second time in less than a year that Emefiele, the first CBN governor to serve two terms in the past three decades, would be subjected to this scale of public scrutiny. Last year, a group of farmers purchased the Expression of Intent Form of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) for the office of president on his behalf. The governor turned down the gesture but his failure to distance himself outright from partisan politics put paid to months of speculation and sparked outrage from critics.
President Weah plans a stopover in Qatar for nine days to watch the Fifa World Cup
Liberia’s finance minister has said President George Weah is “entitled” to $2,000 (£1,700) daily allowance during his current controversial overseas trip that includes a stop in Qatar for nine days to watch the Fifa World Cup.
Samuel Tweah did not however disclose the overall budget for the president’s foreign travel, which began two weeks ago.
The minister told Spoon Talk, a widely-monitored online TV show, that the amount Mr Weah is entitled to was the same figure his predecessor received.
Critics, some inside the ruling Congress for Democratic Change party, say awarding Mr Weah such a huge amount a day goes against his promise to reduce public spending in favour of his “pro-poor agenda.
Mr Weah informed the senate two weeks ago that he would be out of the country from 1 to 23 November, including a visit to Qatar from 15 to 23 November.
Local reports say the former footballer plans to watch his son, who was born in America, playing in the US vs Wales match.
The president’s communication team has said the foreign trip was already “yielding dividends” for the country.
Kwacha v cedi: The best and worst of African currencies
A cocktail of factors has sent the global economy into a tailspin in recent years.
Beginning with the Covid-19 crisis in 2020 that saw international trade almost grind to a halt, and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February this year.
For African economies, trouble had been brewing even before these global crises.
Debt obligations had been on the rise, commodity prices falling and thus eroding foreign exchange earning power in some countries.
And with that, the goose for many African currencies against the US dollar had been cooked.
But most recently, the tale has been two-sided with the best performing as well as the worst performing currencies against the US dollar being from the continent.
Over the course of this year, the Zambian Kwacha has risen to become the best performing currency in the world against the dollar.
It has gained 15% so far into 2022 and was quoted at 15.93 to the dollar in Tuesday trading.
Experts have pegged these gains on President Hakainde Hichilema’s efforts to turn around the economy, mainly by reorganising its foreign debt to make it sustainable.
In September, the southern Africa country inked a crucial deal with the International Monetary Fund for a bail-out loan amounting to $1.3bn (£1.15bn).
The amount will give a lifeline to key social economic programmes such as funding schools and hospitals as the government embarks on renegotiation of expensive debt with China and other creditors.
The move has restored foreign investors’ faith in the copper producer.
This has also seen inflation cool off consistently at a time when even the most developed economies in the world are grappling with runaway inflation.
Zambia’s inflation has fallen from a high of 21% in October last year to 9.9% last month.
Further west in Ghana, the cedi is where the kwacha was in 2015.
On Monday, it was marked the world’s worst performing currency, according to the Bloomberg currency tracker that watches 148 currencies.
In midday trading, Tuesday, the Cedi was quoted at 11.64 to the US dollar. This indicates a 48% loss in value in the last 12 months.
The cedi’s position has been worsened by foreign investors losing confidence in the country and opting to dump Ghanaian dollar-denominated bonds from their portfolios.
According to the country’s Central Securities Depository, the amount of domestic government and corporate bonds in the hands of foreign investors fell to 12.3% in August.
This has seen Ghana fail to access cheap money from the international debt markets, and a Zambia-like deal with the IMF for $3bn in emergency funding is still in the works.
As a result, the cost of living in Ghana has been accelerating for the last 16 months with inflation hitting 37.2% in September.
On Monday, traders in Accra threatened to close down businesses for a second time in two months decrying the high cost of doing business.
Climate envoy Kerry announces funding at Dakar meeting of African ministers; Financing will drive fulfilment of Global Methane Pledge targets
The United States government has announced it will provide a $5 million grant to the African Development Bank to support efforts to abate methane gas emission, across Africa. Methane accounts for about half of the net rise in global average temperature since the pre-industrial era.
The grant, subject to the completion of US domestic procedures and approvals, will go to the multi-donor Africa Climate Change Fund (https://bit.ly/3DtKhno), which is managed by the African Development Bank. The Fund supports a broad range of activities covering climate resilience and low-carbon growth.
US special presidential envoy for climate John Kerry, made the announcement at a breakfast event held on the margins of the 18th African Ministerial Conference on the Environment taking place in Dakar.
He said: “More than 25 countries on the continent have joined the Global Methane Pledge, a resounding level of support for the importance of methane in keeping 1.5 degrees within reach.”
“I am very pleased that the African Development Bank is responding to the increased global attention on methane emissions and is planning to increase their own focus on methane abatement in coming years,” Kerry added.
Additional funding was also promised by the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) and the Global Methane Hub to tackle methane emissions in African countries. The Global Methane Hub will contribute $5 million dollars over the next three years. The Hub funds methane mitigation efforts. The Coalition, a voluntary partnership of governments, intergovernmental organizations, businesses, and research institutions, will provide $1.2 million.
The Global Methane pledge, launched during COP26, targets reducing emissions of methane by at least 30 percent from 2020 levels over the next seven years.
Welcoming the contributions, African Development Bank Vice President for Power, Energy, Climate and Green Growth, Kevin Kariuki said (https://bit.ly/3R1C7G1) the Bank planned to create activities within the ACCF to support methane abatement.
“With the support of the U.S. government, and other donors and non-state actors, we intend to create a dedicated pillar of activities within our Africa Climate Change Fund to support methane abatement including working with countries to include methane in their Nationally Defined Contributions and develop pipelines of methane abatement projects for further investment,” Kariuki said.
The African Development Bank would be releasing a methane baseline reporting covering waste and energy sector methane emissions across Africa at the forthcoming COP 27 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.
“This will provide an excellent foundation for increased focus on methane emissions,” said Kariuki.
The African Development Bank’s 2022 Africa Economic Outlook projects that Africa will need as much as $1.6 trillion between 2020-2030 to implement its climate action commitments and NDCs.
The African Development Bank has committed to mobilizing $25 billion for climate finance by 2025; more than 50% of that funding will be allocated to adaptation projects.
The resumed five-day 18th Session of the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment (https://bit.ly/3SahAQb) in Dakar, ends on Friday 16th of September. Organized by the United Nations Environment Program, it provides African environment minsters a forum to offer policy guidance that will contribute to strengthening Africa’s voice at the COP27.
The EU has announced a 25m euro ($25m; £21m) grant to help Niger’s armed forces fight terrorism and defend its territorial integrity.
The EU has announced a 25m euro ($25m; £21m) grant to help Niger’s armed forces fight terrorism and defend its territorial integrity.
“These funds will help Niger to better protect the civilian population against the growing terrorist threat,” a press release by the EU said.
The money will finance the construction of a training centre for the army’s logistics support.
A military operating base will also be built to reduce the vulnerability of the Nigerien army in the Tillaberi region which borders Burkina Faso and Mali, two countries that have had increasing militant activities.
The EU aid comes few days after French armies minister visited Niger and Ivory Coast where he met the heads of state and discussed regional security challenges.
Niger has become the main partner of France in the Sahel region after Mali pushed the French forces out after nine years of collaboration.
Nigeria: Monarch hosts economic summit for Kingdom prosperity
Young Monarch, the Olu of Warri, Ogiame Atuwatse III is hosting an economic summit to offer a platform for his people to brainstorm on how to attract prosperity to the kingdom. The Governor of his State, Delta, Ifeanyi Okowa, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory commission, Gbenga Komolafe are among dignitaries expected at the premier Ogiame Atuwatse III Economic summit on Thursday at the palace of the Olu of Warri on Ajamimogha, Warri, Delta state.
A statement made available to newsmen in Warri and signed by Mr Oriiz Onuwaje, Head , Back Office Operations, Office of Ogiame Atuwatse III, the Olu of Warri, said the monarch, will declare the summit open on Thursday, adding that the summit was one of the initiatives of His Majesty, the Olu of Warri, Ogiame Atuwatse III, to attract development to Warri kingdom .
He said the summit will be live-streamed on WWW.atuwatseiii.com, adding that key players in the oil and gas sector , team leads of international oil companies, leaders of petroleum producing host communities in Iwere land and other players in the industry would be there .
“This summit is coming on the heels of Ogiame’s determination to ensure Iwere land is developed using the PIA as a tool to restart positive, transparent and progressive engagement between host communities and the settlers where every side is a winner. “
“Ogiame Atuwatse III – The Olu of Warri , will declare the gathering open in the presence of Delta state governor , His Excellency, Senator Arthur Ifeanyi Okowa , who is expected to kick off the summit. The summit is Thursday , May 26th ,2022 at 11am, registration starts at 9am”
“Also featuring keynote speakers, including Mr Gbenga Komolafe , the Chief Executive Officer , CEO , of the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory commission, Dr Ebi Omatsola, former MD at Conoil, Engr Alex Neyin, former president of the Society of Petroleum Engineers , SPE – African Region, amongst other notable oil industry bigwigs. “
Senegal’s Taiba N’Diaye Wind Farm Blows in a New Wave of Green Investment for the MSGBC Region By Charné Hundermark
Senegal’s Taiba N’Diaye Wind Energy Farm Blows in a New Wave of Green Investment for the MSGBC Region By Charné Hundermark
In addition to world class energy developments taking place within the oil and gas industry, Senegal is making moves to exploit its significant renewable energy resources, positioning the Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea Bissau and Guinea Conakry (MSGBC) region as a globally competitive renewable energy market. Through the country’s Taiba N’diaye wind power project, located 70km north-east of the capital city Dakar, Senegal is stimulating green investment, accelerating regional electrification, and creating a domino effect of renewable energy developments across the wider MSGBC region. Senegal’s first wind project is strengthening the region’s position as a renewable energy leader, with MSGBC Oil, Gas, & Power 2021 anticipated to drive further investment in the region
Led by renewable power company Lekela, the Taiba N’diaye project comprises Senegal’s first utility-scale wind power project. The 158MW onshore wind facility covers 41 hectares and is equipped with 46 wind turbines each with a nominal capacity of 3.45MW. The national power utility company, Senelec, signed a power purchase agreement with the wind farm whereby Senelec will purchase power generated by the project for 20 years, distributing critical electricity across the country.
Development of the project is taking place in three stages, with Phase 1 bringing 16 turbines online, Phase 2 installing 16 turbines, and the final stage 14 turbines. With phase one completed in December 2019, the project has already increased access to electricity while reducing CO2 emissions by 300,000 tons. Construction of the wind farm began at the end of 2018 with completion scheduled at the end of 2020. However, with COVID-19 causing unprecedented construction delays – due to economic slowdowns – full-scale commissioning is now expected in 2021 whereby the wind farm will become fully operational.
Having reached financial closure in 2018, the Taiba N’diaye project has successfully attracted over $400 million investment – with the Overseas Private Investment Corporation committing $250 million in financing and $70 million in reinsurance, the Danish Export Credit Agency EKF guaranteeing a $161 million export loan and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency providing political risk insurance. In addition to direct project investment, Taiba N’diaye benefits from strong government and community support, boasting an extensive social investment program targeting $20 million investment in the host community throughout the lifespan of the project. Notwithstanding financial investments, the project will also enable regional human capital development, with training programs and knowledge and skills transfer enhancing regional capacity building. Therefore, the MSGBC region stands to benefits financially, socially, and economically, all from one wind project.
The project’s regional significance extends from attracting foreign investment, to ensuring a viable power generation solution and stimulating regional renewable developments. In terms of power benefits, the project will provide low-cost, renewable energy to Senegal’s national grid, providing a 15% increase in electricity generation capacity for the country and supplying over 2 million people with valuable electricity. With the region’s increasing demand for clean and economically priced electricity – Senegal currently has some of the highest generation costs in sub-Saharan Africa – the project marks an important milestone in the journey to universal access to electricity.
Meanwhile, the project is expected to create a domino effect of new renewable developments, not just in Senegal, but across the entire MSGBC region. As a Power Africa supported project – a U.S. Government led partnership that brings together technical and legal experts, the private sector, and regional governments to accelerate power developments and increase electrification – the Taiba N’diaye project had multiple investment partners, all focused on expanding renewable energy in Africa. With the success of the project behind them, companies such as the OPIC, the U.S.-Africa Clean Energy Financing Facility, and the World Bank’s MIGA are all looking to contribute to the MSGBC region’s renewable development, and regional stakeholders should seize this opportunity.
Accordingly, the MSGBC region’s renewable outlook is incredibly optimistic, with renewed interest in the solar, wind, and hydropower spurring new developments. Senegal, in particular, has emphasized the role renewables will play in the market and has set up ambitious targets to reach universal access to electricity by 2025, achieve 200GWh of hydropower production, and have renewables make up 30% of the power mix by 2025. Additionally, Mauritania hopes to expand its renewable energy sector, capitalizing on its significant solar and wind resources. Finally, with its current total reliance on petroleum for power generation, stakeholders are pushing for an accelerated renewable uptake in the The Gambia. Accordingly, the regional opportunities are endless and the MSGBC region is well positioned to become a global renewable energy leader.
In response to growing demand for renewable power, and increasing interest by international stakeholders to invest, develop, and succeed in Africa, Energy Capital & Power will hold the MSGBC Oil, Gas, & Power 2021 conference and exhibition on the 1-3 December 2021. Focused on enhancing regional partnerships, spurring investment and development in the oil, gas and power sectors, the conference will unite regional international stakeholders with African opportunities, serving as a growth-oriented platform for Africa’s energy sector
Charné Hundermark is the Southern and East Africa Editor of Energy Capital and Power.
Authorities shut Nigeria High Commission in London over Covid cases
Authorities shut Nigeria High Commission in London over Covid cases
The Nigeria High commission in London has been closed after two officials tested positive for Covid-19.
The 10-day closure is likely to affect the mission’s services.
One of the diplomats tested positive during screening at the entrance to the UK’s Home Office – where they were due to attend a meeting, a statement from the high commission said.
As a result, all members of the Nigerian diplomatic mission were tested.
During the testing exercise, another official was found to have contracted the virus.
Those who have had contact with them have now gone into mandatory isolation for 10 days.
Officials say the closure of the embassy is in line with Covid-19 protocols and the need to respect the UK’s rules.
The services that will be affected include visa processing and the issuance of passports. (BBC)
Even when it comes to the fighting there is the problem of weaponry, according to Mr Adamu, who says that the military is ill-equipped
Corruption eats deep in Nigeria’s military, bolsters Boko Haram, says report
A new report by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) has listed corruption in the military as one of the reasons why Nigeria has not been able to defeat Boko Haram.
The report also said Boko Haram has refused to go away in the West African country because the country has not been able to address the root cause of Boko Haram since 2009.
“Corruption may be one thing that is holding the military back when it comes to improving its equipment. It is suspected that a lot of money meant to bolster the campaign against Boko Haram has ended up in officials’ pockets.
Mr Yalwa says that in some cases the fight against Boko Haram is not being fought with “sincerity” and “it seems some people have turned it into merchandise and are into self-enrichment”. In recent years, the military was hamstrung by a US arms embargo over human rights abuses. President Buhari and his predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, both complained that this was hampering counter-insurgency efforts. But this was lifted by President Donald Trump in 2018 and as a result Nigeria is expecting the delivery of Super Tucano aircraft. This should build on the military’s air superiority, which Mr Adamu believes is not being used to its full advantage.
Although there are claims that even this superiority is not paying off”, said the report.
The phrase that Nigerian militant group Boko Haram had been “technically defeated” is ringing increasingly hollow.
Seven months into his first term in 2015 President Muhammadu Buhari coined the term, but the group and its offshoots have never gone away.
The military has managed to retake territory and dislodged the fighters from some of their hideouts. But a recent spike in deadly violence, focused in the north-east, where the Islamist group began its insurgency in 2009, has led many to ask what is at the root of the authorities’ failure.
Already this year there have been nearly 100 attacks, according to one estimate. A number of military bases as well as towns, including Geidam and Damasak, a hub for aid workers, have been overrun. Hundreds have been killed and weapons, food and medicines have all been looted.
There are six main reasons why Boko Haram has not been defeated despite the government claims, experts say.
1: Root causes not addressed
An over-reliance on a military strategy to confront Boko Haram is at the heart of the state’s inability to deal with the threat, argues security analyst Kabiru Adamu from Beacon Consulting.
“That’s why, unfortunately, almost 11 or 12 years into the counter-insurgency operation, we are not seeing major successes,” he told the BBC.
“Yes, the military will dislodge the terrorists but then because they are still able to exercise influence, they’re able to recruit, they’re able to generate funding, they’re able to acquire weaponry, then they regroup.”
Experts say that it is not that people in the north-east sympathise with Boko Haram and its splinter group, the Islamic State’s West Africa Province, but that neglect from the authorities and desperation often drive people into the hands of the militants.
“The reality is that to address insurgency or terrorism, you need more than military operation. You need to address the root causes of the insurgency,” Mr Adamu says.
“Unfortunately we haven’t seen enough efforts in that regard.”
He points to a lack of good governance that leaves the population impoverished, frustrated and uneducated as “one huge root cause”.
There are major government initiatives that are meant to speed up development in the north-east, but little progress has been made.
There is also the National Counter-Terrorism Strategy which also involves economic development and counter-radicalisation, in addition to the deployment of troops. But Mr Adamu says it appears the strategy is not being fully implemented.
Others, like Security analyst at the Tony Blair Institute for Change, Bulama Bukarti, argue that along with deradicalisation there should be a huge surge in military activity similar to what was seen in Iraq and Syria when the Islamic State group’s so-called caliphate was dismantled.
2: Boko Haram’s ability to recruit
The endemic poverty in parts of the region as well as the insurgents’ violent methods enable the continued recruitment of generation after generation of fighters, experts say.
“People are readily available for recruitment just to survive,” security expert Abdullahi Yalwa said, citing the problems of joblessness and poor governance.
Mr Bukarti highlights the “systematic campaign of forced recruitment of young people”.
Borno state Governor, Babagana Zullum, recently told the BBC that the insurgents were even recruiting people who had previously been forced from their homes by the conflict itself.
3: Lack of equipment
Even when it comes to the fighting there is the problem of weaponry, according to Mr
image captionThe military have managed to capture some weapons from Boko Haram, as seen here in 2019
Research by his firm, Beacon Consulting, found that there were about 6.5 million small arms and light weapons in circulation in Nigeria but just 586,000 are in the hands of security forces.
It is not the case that all of the remainder are being used by the Islamist militants, but the figures highlight that there are a huge amount of weapons available that are not in the military’s control.
Mr Adamu also says that “what we are seeing based on evidence is that these [armed] groups have a higher calibre of weapons, unfortunately, than the military”.
4: Corruption
Corruption may be one thing that is holding the military back when it comes to improving its equipment. It is suspected that a lot of money meant to bolster the campaign against Boko Haram has ended up in officials’ pockets.
Mr Yalwa says that in some cases the fight against Boko Haram is not being fought with “sincerity” and “it seems some people have turned it into merchandise and are into self-enrichment”.
In recent years, the military was hamstrung by a US arms embargo over human rights abuses. President Buhari and his predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, both complained that this was hampering counter-insurgency efforts.
But this was lifted by President Donald Trump in 2018 and as a result Nigeria is expecting the delivery of Super Tucano aircraft. This should build on the military’s air superiority, which Mr Adamu believes is not being used to its full advantage.
Although there are claims that even this superiority is not paying off.
5: Military strategy not working
Mr Bukarti told the BBC the insurgents appear to have “understood and adapted to the pattern of military airstrikes” and are taking advantage of the difficult terrain in Nigeria’s north-east to evade military attacks.
Boko Haram gained international notoriety after kidnapping pupils at a girl school in 2014
There are also other aspects of the strategy that have been criticised.
Over the past year the army has been withdrawing troops from smaller bases and concentrating them in large formations known as Super Camps.
This strategy was adopted in early 2020 when soldiers were under regular attack and their weapons were being stolen.
However, it has left vast swathes of rural communities unprotected, analysts say.
“We have evidence suggesting an increase in attacks on communities between the period when the Super Camps were created and now. So clearly the Super Camps left the rural communities more vulnerable,” argues Mr Adamu.
This has also devastated the livelihoods of people in north-east Nigeria who rely on fishing and crop farming, and had an impact on food production.
The military is also hampered by gaps in intelligence gathering as well as being unable to plug information leaks.
This means that sometimes it appears that “the insurgents are ahead of the military”, Mr Yalwa says.
The army disputes this alleged problem. Its spokesperson Mohammed Yarima recently said that “troops are in high fighting spirit and determined to as ever to clear the [north-east] region and the country of vestiges of Boko Haram terrorists”.
6: Boko Haram’s influence is spreading
Adding to the problems of dealing with Boko Haram is that the insurgency, once confined to the north-east, appears to be spreading.
There are concerns that armed criminal gangs in other parts of the north and centre of the country are forging links with the militants.
Last year, Boko Haram released a video claiming a presence in Niger state which is far from its usual area of operations. The authorities there issued a statement in March saying Boko Haram fighters had infiltrated the state occupying forests and attacking communities.
Last December, then army chief Lt Gen Yusuf Tukur Buratai suggested that the fight against Boko Haram could continue for another 20 years if the civilian and military approaches were not better co-ordinated.
The hard-pressed residents of north-eastern Nigeria will hope that warning does not come to pass.
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